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Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?

Market icon
Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11–13 31%

14–16 28%

8–10 21%

17–19 15%

Polymarket

$1,038,787 Vol.

11–13 31%

14–16 28%

8–10 21%

17–19 15%

Polymarket

$1,038,787 Vol.

<5

$160,728 Vol.

<1%

5–7

$62,863 Vol.

3%

8–10

$117,387 Vol.

21%

11–13

$376,738 Vol.

31%

14–16

$126,401 Vol.

28%

17–19

$194,669 Vol.

15%

20+

$0 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus centers on 11–13 (30.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026, closely tracking USGS historical global averages of about 15–16 such events annually from 1900–present, driven by tectonic stress release along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. The narrow lead reflects seismic variability—annual counts fluctuate between 8–25 due to stochastic clustering on subduction zones and transform faults, with no reliable short-term forecasts possible. Recent 2024 activity, already at 15 events including Japan's Noto and Tonga quakes, aligns with norms but underscores unpredictability; lower ranges like 8–10 (20.5%) account for quieter years like 2020's nine. USGS provisional catalogs will finalize counts by early 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,038,787
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus centers on 11–13 (30.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026, closely tracking USGS historical global averages of about 15–16 such events annually from 1900–present, driven by tectonic stress release along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. The narrow lead reflects seismic variability—annual counts fluctuate between 8–25 due to stochastic clustering on subduction zones and transform faults, with no reliable short-term forecasts possible. Recent 2024 activity, already at 15 events including Japan's Noto and Tonga quakes, aligns with norms but underscores unpredictability; lower ranges like 8–10 (20.5%) account for quieter years like 2020's nine. USGS provisional catalogs will finalize counts by early 2027.

Trader consensus centers on 11–13 (30.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026, closely tracking USGS historical global averages of about 15–16 such events annually from 1900–present, driven by tectonic stress release along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. The narrow lead reflects seismic variability—annual counts fluctuate between 8–25 due to stochastic clustering on subduction zones and transform faults, with no reliable short-term forecasts possible. Recent 2024 activity, already at 15 events including Japan's Noto and Tonga quakes, aligns with norms but underscores unpredictability; lower ranges like 8–10 (20.5%) account for quieter years like 2020's nine. USGS provisional catalogs will finalize counts by early 2027.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "11–13" con 31%, seguido de "14–16" con 28%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 31¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 31% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?" ha generado $1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 31, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?" es "11–13" con 31%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 31% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "14–16" con 28%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.