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Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12

Market icon

Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12

$1,185,166 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,185,166 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$136,761 Vol.

7%

¿Atraparán los palillos el propulsor Super Heavy?

$195,356 Vol.

11%

¿El propulsor Super Heavy explota?

$178,452 Vol.

63%

¿Amerizaje exitoso?

$132,628 Vol.

64%

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volumen
$1,185,166
Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:54 PM ET
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "¿Amerizaje exitoso?" at 64%, followed by "¿El propulsor Super Heavy explota?" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12" is "¿Amerizaje exitoso?" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "¿El propulsor Super Heavy explota?" at 63%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Prueba de vuelo de la nave espacial SpaceX 12" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.