Market icon

¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?

Market icon

¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?

Anthropic 98.8%

Google <1%

xAI <1%

OpenAI <1%

Polymarket

$15,295,860 Vol.

Anthropic 98.8%

Google <1%

xAI <1%

OpenAI <1%

Polymarket

$15,295,860 Vol.

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Anthropic

$1,522,388 Vol.

99%

Market icon

Google

$988,588 Vol.

<1%

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xAI

$1,130,225 Vol.

<1%

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OpenAI

$1,467,097 Vol.

<1%

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DeepSeek

$1,330,203 Vol.

<1%

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Baidu

$3,134,781 Vol.

<1%

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Moonshot

$1,419,791 Vol.

<1%

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Meituan

$1,197,315 Vol.

<1%

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Alibaba

$1,224,639 Vol.

<1%

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Z.ai

$1,262,172 Vol.

<1%

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Mistral

$618,696 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Anthropic" con 99%, seguido de "Google" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?" ha generado $15.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 2, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?" es "Anthropic" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Google" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.