Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 98.8%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
$15,295,860 Vol.
$15,295,860 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
99%
<1%
xAI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 98.8%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
$15,295,860 Vol.
$15,295,860 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,522,388 Vol.
99%
$988,588 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$1,130,225 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$1,467,097 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,330,203 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$3,134,781 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,419,791 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,197,315 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,224,639 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,262,172 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$618,696 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$15,295,860Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$15,295,860Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 98.8% implied probability of boasting the best AI model by end of March, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across all LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—text, code, and vision—since its early March release. This large language model tops key benchmarks like Code Arena (2,003 Elo), GPQA (91.3%), and SWE-bench (80.8%), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts including computer-use agents, voice mode, and persistent memory. With resolution imminent on March 31 via leaderboard position, surprises like a rival frontier model drop or evaluation volatility could challenge this dominance, though no such catalysts loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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