Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.
31 mar 2026
No
OpenAI
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Mistral
No
Anthropic
Sí
Alibaba
No
xAI
No
Moonshot
No
Meituan
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.
31 mar 2026
$61,884 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$94,253 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$26,374 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$98,583 Vol.
No
Mistral
$112,098 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$63,459 Vol.
Sí
Alibaba
$26,158 Vol.
No
xAI
$28,244 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$62,170 Vol.
No
Meituan
$17,300 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$590,523Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$590,523Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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