Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a 1504 Elo score—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493 and well clear of xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta1 at 1491—driving the 97.9% trader consensus as the market nears resolution on March 31. This positioning stems from weeks of sustained leadership following recent evaluations that highlighted Claude's superior reasoning and reliability, outpacing rivals amid no major competitor releases in the past 48 hours. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect crowd wisdom on leaderboard stability, realistic challenges include accelerated vote accumulation propelling xAI's newcomer or an unforeseen OpenAI GPT-5.x drop flipping rankings in the final days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 97.9%
xAI 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$946,130 Vol.
$946,130 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.9%
xAI 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$946,130 Vol.
$946,130 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$56,593 Vol.
98%
xAI
$62,140 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$102,011 Vol.
1%
$112,490 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$104,662 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$46,865 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$220,070 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$87,306 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$55,470 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$98,521 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a 1504 Elo score—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493 and well clear of xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta1 at 1491—driving the 97.9% trader consensus as the market nears resolution on March 31. This positioning stems from weeks of sustained leadership following recent evaluations that highlighted Claude's superior reasoning and reliability, outpacing rivals amid no major competitor releases in the past 48 hours. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect crowd wisdom on leaderboard stability, realistic challenges include accelerated vote accumulation propelling xAI's newcomer or an unforeseen OpenAI GPT-5.x drop flipping rankings in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$946,130Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a 1504 Elo score—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493 and well clear of xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta1 at 1491—driving the 97.9% trader consensus as the market nears resolution on March 31. This positioning stems from weeks of sustained leadership following recent evaluations that highlighted Claude's superior reasoning and reliability, outpacing rivals amid no major competitor releases in the past 48 hours. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect crowd wisdom on leaderboard stability, realistic challenges include accelerated vote accumulation propelling xAI's newcomer or an unforeseen OpenAI GPT-5.x drop flipping rankings in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$946,130Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model commands the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a 1504 Elo score—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493 and well clear of xAI's preliminary Grok-4.20 beta1 at 1491—driving the 97.9% trader consensus as the market nears resolution on March 31. This positioning stems from weeks of sustained leadership following recent evaluations that highlighted Claude's superior reasoning and reliability, outpacing rivals amid no major competitor releases in the past 48 hours. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect crowd wisdom on leaderboard stability, realistic challenges include accelerated vote accumulation propelling xAI's newcomer or an unforeseen OpenAI GPT-5.x drop flipping rankings in the final days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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