Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's rapid ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after its June 20 release. This large language model outperformed rivals in coding benchmarks and multimodal tasks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o (now at 12.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22%), which lack fresh updates to challenge it. xAI's Grok models trail at 7% amid slower progress, while smaller players like Mistral hover below 3%. With the month-end approaching, leaderboard volatility from user votes or surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's technical edge sustains its frontrunner status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 46%
Google 22%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
49%
22%
OpenAI
13%
xAI
7%
Mistral
2%
Moonshot
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Meituan
2%
Z.ai
2%
Alibaba
1%
Anthropic 46%
Google 22%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,264 Vol.
49%
$8,692 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
13%
xAI
$0 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$115,112 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's rapid ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after its June 20 release. This large language model outperformed rivals in coding benchmarks and multimodal tasks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o (now at 12.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22%), which lack fresh updates to challenge it. xAI's Grok models trail at 7% amid slower progress, while smaller players like Mistral hover below 3%. With the month-end approaching, leaderboard volatility from user votes or surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's technical edge sustains its frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$140,068Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's rapid ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after its June 20 release. This large language model outperformed rivals in coding benchmarks and multimodal tasks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o (now at 12.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22%), which lack fresh updates to challenge it. xAI's Grok models trail at 7% amid slower progress, while smaller players like Mistral hover below 3%. With the month-end approaching, leaderboard volatility from user votes or surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's technical edge sustains its frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$140,068Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's rapid ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after its June 20 release. This large language model outperformed rivals in coding benchmarks and multimodal tasks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o (now at 12.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22%), which lack fresh updates to challenge it. xAI's Grok models trail at 7% amid slower progress, while smaller players like Mistral hover below 3%. With the month-end approaching, leaderboard volatility from user votes or surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's technical edge sustains its frontrunner status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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