Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 52.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant Elo scores since its February 2026 launch, where style control settings amplify its coherent, safety-aligned responses over flashier rivals. Google's 23.5% follows Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent coding and reasoning gains in March benchmarks, closing the gap amid Q1's rapid iterations. OpenAI's 12.5% reflects GPT-5.4's relative underperformance in style-controlled evals despite March updates, while xAI's 7% bets on Grok 4.20's agentic strengths. With labs like DeepSeek and Mistral trailing below 5%, watch for pre-June releases or leaderboard shifts from test-time compute advances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 53%
Google 24%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$936,195 Vol.
$936,195 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
53%
24%
OpenAI
12%
xAI
7%
DeepSeek
3%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
Meituan
2%
Alibaba
1%
Anthropic 53%
Google 24%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$936,195 Vol.
$936,195 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$17,515 Vol.
53%
$9,338 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$43,268 Vol.
12%
xAI
$7,641 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$175,339 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$197,143 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$208,882 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$43,004 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$116,006 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$118,059 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 52.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant Elo scores since its February 2026 launch, where style control settings amplify its coherent, safety-aligned responses over flashier rivals. Google's 23.5% follows Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent coding and reasoning gains in March benchmarks, closing the gap amid Q1's rapid iterations. OpenAI's 12.5% reflects GPT-5.4's relative underperformance in style-controlled evals despite March updates, while xAI's 7% bets on Grok 4.20's agentic strengths. With labs like DeepSeek and Mistral trailing below 5%, watch for pre-June releases or leaderboard shifts from test-time compute advances.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$936,195Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 52.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant Elo scores since its February 2026 launch, where style control settings amplify its coherent, safety-aligned responses over flashier rivals. Google's 23.5% follows Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent coding and reasoning gains in March benchmarks, closing the gap amid Q1's rapid iterations. OpenAI's 12.5% reflects GPT-5.4's relative underperformance in style-controlled evals despite March updates, while xAI's 7% bets on Grok 4.20's agentic strengths. With labs like DeepSeek and Mistral trailing below 5%, watch for pre-June releases or leaderboard shifts from test-time compute advances.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$936,195Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 52.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant Elo scores since its February 2026 launch, where style control settings amplify its coherent, safety-aligned responses over flashier rivals. Google's 23.5% follows Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent coding and reasoning gains in March benchmarks, closing the gap amid Q1's rapid iterations. OpenAI's 12.5% reflects GPT-5.4's relative underperformance in style-controlled evals despite March updates, while xAI's 7% bets on Grok 4.20's agentic strengths. With labs like DeepSeek and Mistral trailing below 5%, watch for pre-June releases or leaderboard shifts from test-time compute advances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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