Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for a Critical Discord Incident by April 30, driven by the platform's sustained stability absent any widespread security compromises or prolonged outages meeting resolution thresholds. Recent networking disruptions, including a March 25 voice chat outage lasting under four hours and a March 19 call failure—both swiftly resolved per Discord's status page—do not qualify as critical. Since mitigating a January 2026 CVE-2026-24332 information disclosure vulnerability without confirmed exploits, Discord has seen no data breaches akin to the 2025 third-party vendor incident. Enhanced vendor vetting and the delayed global age verification rollout to late 2026 further bolster near-term security, with traders eyeing no major catalysts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for a Critical Discord Incident by April 30, driven by the platform's sustained stability absent any widespread security compromises or prolonged outages meeting resolution thresholds. Recent networking disruptions, including a March 25 voice chat outage lasting under four hours and a March 19 call failure—both swiftly resolved per Discord's status page—do not qualify as critical. Since mitigating a January 2026 CVE-2026-24332 information disclosure vulnerability without confirmed exploits, Discord has seen no data breaches akin to the 2025 third-party vendor incident. Enhanced vendor vetting and the delayed global age verification rollout to late 2026 further bolster near-term security, with traders eyeing no major catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$328Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for a Critical Discord Incident by April 30, driven by the platform's sustained stability absent any widespread security compromises or prolonged outages meeting resolution thresholds. Recent networking disruptions, including a March 25 voice chat outage lasting under four hours and a March 19 call failure—both swiftly resolved per Discord's status page—do not qualify as critical. Since mitigating a January 2026 CVE-2026-24332 information disclosure vulnerability without confirmed exploits, Discord has seen no data breaches akin to the 2025 third-party vendor incident. Enhanced vendor vetting and the delayed global age verification rollout to late 2026 further bolster near-term security, with traders eyeing no major catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Volumen
$328Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for a Critical Discord Incident by April 30, driven by the platform's sustained stability absent any widespread security compromises or prolonged outages meeting resolution thresholds. Recent networking disruptions, including a March 25 voice chat outage lasting under four hours and a March 19 call failure—both swiftly resolved per Discord's status page—do not qualify as critical. Since mitigating a January 2026 CVE-2026-24332 information disclosure vulnerability without confirmed exploits, Discord has seen no data breaches akin to the 2025 third-party vendor incident. Enhanced vendor vetting and the delayed global age verification rollout to late 2026 further bolster near-term security, with traders eyeing no major catalysts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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