Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic as the frontrunner with a 64% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, driven by a late-March data leak revealing "Mythos," a 10-trillion-parameter frontier large language model touted as a major leap in coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities—potentially debuting Claude Capybara soon after. Google's 20% share reflects its strong current LMSYS Chatbot Arena standing via Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants released in early April, bolstering multimodal benchmarks amid fierce competition. OpenAI lags at 13% despite GPT-5.3 Instant and Codex updates last week, as iterative gains trail hype around rivals' step-changes. xAI's low odds stem from Grok 5 delays into late 2026; watch for Mythos launches or surprise Gemini 4 previews as swing factors before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 63.9%
Título del ítem del grupo 20%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 3.1%
$3,140,488 Vol.
$3,140,488 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
64%
Título del ítem del grupo
20%
OpenAI
13%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 63.9%
Título del ítem del grupo 20%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 3.1%
$3,140,488 Vol.
$3,140,488 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$593,864 Vol.
64%
Título del ítem del grupo
$327,469 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$136,880 Vol.
13%
xAI
$881,586 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$271,742 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$132,179 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$182,276 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$306,711 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$135,978 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$171,804 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic as the frontrunner with a 64% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, driven by a late-March data leak revealing "Mythos," a 10-trillion-parameter frontier large language model touted as a major leap in coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities—potentially debuting Claude Capybara soon after. Google's 20% share reflects its strong current LMSYS Chatbot Arena standing via Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants released in early April, bolstering multimodal benchmarks amid fierce competition. OpenAI lags at 13% despite GPT-5.3 Instant and Codex updates last week, as iterative gains trail hype around rivals' step-changes. xAI's low odds stem from Grok 5 delays into late 2026; watch for Mythos launches or surprise Gemini 4 previews as swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$3,140,488Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic as the frontrunner with a 64% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, driven by a late-March data leak revealing "Mythos," a 10-trillion-parameter frontier large language model touted as a major leap in coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities—potentially debuting Claude Capybara soon after. Google's 20% share reflects its strong current LMSYS Chatbot Arena standing via Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants released in early April, bolstering multimodal benchmarks amid fierce competition. OpenAI lags at 13% despite GPT-5.3 Instant and Codex updates last week, as iterative gains trail hype around rivals' step-changes. xAI's low odds stem from Grok 5 delays into late 2026; watch for Mythos launches or surprise Gemini 4 previews as swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$3,140,488Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic as the frontrunner with a 64% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, driven by a late-March data leak revealing "Mythos," a 10-trillion-parameter frontier large language model touted as a major leap in coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities—potentially debuting Claude Capybara soon after. Google's 20% share reflects its strong current LMSYS Chatbot Arena standing via Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants released in early April, bolstering multimodal benchmarks amid fierce competition. OpenAI lags at 13% despite GPT-5.3 Instant and Codex updates last week, as iterative gains trail hype around rivals' step-changes. xAI's low odds stem from Grok 5 delays into late 2026; watch for Mythos launches or surprise Gemini 4 previews as swing factors before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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