Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 22%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 2.4%
$2,809,255 Vol.
$2,809,255 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
22%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 22%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 2.4%
$2,809,255 Vol.
$2,809,255 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$564,381 Vol.
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
$311,878 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$95,259 Vol.
10%
xAI
$835,909 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$186,080 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$165,352 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$107,954 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$283,795 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$120,199 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$138,450 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,809,255Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,809,255Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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