Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 65.3% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's top rankings on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and GPQA benchmarks, where it outperforms rivals in reasoning and long-context tasks. Anthropic's aggressive March 2026 shipping cadence—including Claude Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5, agentic features like Claude Cowork, persistent memory, and cross-app integrations—has solidified its lead, enhancing practical utility amid fierce competition. Google trails at 21.5% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 9.0% reflects post-GPT-5 lag. xAI and others lag due to unproven scaling. With three months to resolution, anticipated model drops from Google or OpenAI could erode Anthropic's edge in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 65.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 21%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 2.1%
$2,825,000 Vol.
$2,825,000 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
21%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 65.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 21%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 2.1%
$2,825,000 Vol.
$2,825,000 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$565,450 Vol.
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
$312,574 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$95,967 Vol.
9%
xAI
$842,146 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$186,895 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$166,234 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$108,636 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$284,750 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$122,114 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$140,232 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 65.3% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's top rankings on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and GPQA benchmarks, where it outperforms rivals in reasoning and long-context tasks. Anthropic's aggressive March 2026 shipping cadence—including Claude Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5, agentic features like Claude Cowork, persistent memory, and cross-app integrations—has solidified its lead, enhancing practical utility amid fierce competition. Google trails at 21.5% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 9.0% reflects post-GPT-5 lag. xAI and others lag due to unproven scaling. With three months to resolution, anticipated model drops from Google or OpenAI could erode Anthropic's edge in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,825,000Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 65.3% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's top rankings on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and GPQA benchmarks, where it outperforms rivals in reasoning and long-context tasks. Anthropic's aggressive March 2026 shipping cadence—including Claude Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5, agentic features like Claude Cowork, persistent memory, and cross-app integrations—has solidified its lead, enhancing practical utility amid fierce competition. Google trails at 21.5% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 9.0% reflects post-GPT-5 lag. xAI and others lag due to unproven scaling. With three months to resolution, anticipated model drops from Google or OpenAI could erode Anthropic's edge in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,825,000Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 65.3% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's top rankings on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and GPQA benchmarks, where it outperforms rivals in reasoning and long-context tasks. Anthropic's aggressive March 2026 shipping cadence—including Claude Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5, agentic features like Claude Cowork, persistent memory, and cross-app integrations—has solidified its lead, enhancing practical utility amid fierce competition. Google trails at 21.5% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 9.0% reflects post-GPT-5 lag. xAI and others lag due to unproven scaling. With three months to resolution, anticipated model drops from Google or OpenAI could erode Anthropic's edge in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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