OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.
31 mar 2026
No
OpenAI
Sí
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Mistral
No
Anthropic
No
Alibaba
No
xAI
No
Moonshot
No
OpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.
31 mar 2026
$133,679 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$70,132 Vol.
Sí
Z.ai
$24,738 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$77,015 Vol.
No
Mistral
$0 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$64,146 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$31,587 Vol.
No
xAI
$66,783 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$31,038 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Volumen
$499,119Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$499,119Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes