Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview commands a dominant 95.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 26, thanks to its stable 1493 Elo rating backed by over 15,800 battles—outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 7,378 votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants lower down. Recent Google releases in February-March 2026 showcased superior reasoning and efficiency in human preference evals, solidifying trader consensus amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 duopoly at #1-2. With just days to March 31 resolution, displacement would require a voting surge for challengers like xAI's ongoing betas or surprise OpenAI/Anthropic tweaks, though historical leaderboard inertia favors stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGoogle 95.2%
xAI 3.6%
Anthropic 1.4%
Z.ai <1%
$352,531 Vol.
$352,531 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
95%
xAI
4%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 95.2%
xAI 3.6%
Anthropic 1.4%
Z.ai <1%
$352,531 Vol.
$352,531 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$36,826 Vol.
95%
xAI
$29,086 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$21,943 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$129,990 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$22,992 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$30,415 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,114 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$11,628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview commands a dominant 95.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 26, thanks to its stable 1493 Elo rating backed by over 15,800 battles—outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 7,378 votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants lower down. Recent Google releases in February-March 2026 showcased superior reasoning and efficiency in human preference evals, solidifying trader consensus amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 duopoly at #1-2. With just days to March 31 resolution, displacement would require a voting surge for challengers like xAI's ongoing betas or surprise OpenAI/Anthropic tweaks, though historical leaderboard inertia favors stability.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$352,531Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview commands a dominant 95.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 26, thanks to its stable 1493 Elo rating backed by over 15,800 battles—outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 7,378 votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants lower down. Recent Google releases in February-March 2026 showcased superior reasoning and efficiency in human preference evals, solidifying trader consensus amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 duopoly at #1-2. With just days to March 31 resolution, displacement would require a voting surge for challengers like xAI's ongoing betas or surprise OpenAI/Anthropic tweaks, though historical leaderboard inertia favors stability.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$352,531Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview commands a dominant 95.3% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 26, thanks to its stable 1493 Elo rating backed by over 15,800 battles—outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 7,378 votes) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants lower down. Recent Google releases in February-March 2026 showcased superior reasoning and efficiency in human preference evals, solidifying trader consensus amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 duopoly at #1-2. With just days to March 31 resolution, displacement would require a voting surge for challengers like xAI's ongoing betas or surprise OpenAI/Anthropic tweaks, though historical leaderboard inertia favors stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes