Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 100% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LM Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at month-end, as Claude Opus 4.6 sits firmly at #3 with a 1497 Elo score—trailing only two superior Anthropic variants, Claude Opus 4.7-thinking (1503) and 4.6-thinking (1502). This dominance stems from Anthropic's April releases of Claude 4.6 and 4.7 models, which excelled in crowdsourced battles emphasizing substantive content over stylistic flair, outpacing rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #5 (1493). With the leaderboard updated just 22 hours ago and the market resolving imminently, a late-breaking model update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could theoretically displace it, though tight timelines make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$137,322 Vol.
$137,322 Vol.
30 abr 2026
No
Alibaba
No
ByteDance
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic
Sí
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Meta
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$137,322 Vol.
$137,322 Vol.
30 abr 2026
$10,090 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$3,620 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$3,795 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$6,791 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$6,382 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$9,593 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$1,197 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$42,094 Vol.
Sí
OpenAI
$16,493 Vol.
No
xAI
$8,278 Vol.
No
Baidu
$4,255 Vol.
No
Amazon
$5,670 Vol.
No
Mistral
$3,713 Vol.
No
Meituan
$2,997 Vol.
No
Meta
$12,354 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 100% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LM Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at month-end, as Claude Opus 4.6 sits firmly at #3 with a 1497 Elo score—trailing only two superior Anthropic variants, Claude Opus 4.7-thinking (1503) and 4.6-thinking (1502). This dominance stems from Anthropic's April releases of Claude 4.6 and 4.7 models, which excelled in crowdsourced battles emphasizing substantive content over stylistic flair, outpacing rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #5 (1493). With the leaderboard updated just 22 hours ago and the market resolving imminently, a late-breaking model update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could theoretically displace it, though tight timelines make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volumen
$137,322Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 100% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LM Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at month-end, as Claude Opus 4.6 sits firmly at #3 with a 1497 Elo score—trailing only two superior Anthropic variants, Claude Opus 4.7-thinking (1503) and 4.6-thinking (1502). This dominance stems from Anthropic's April releases of Claude 4.6 and 4.7 models, which excelled in crowdsourced battles emphasizing substantive content over stylistic flair, outpacing rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #5 (1493). With the leaderboard updated just 22 hours ago and the market resolving imminently, a late-breaking model update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could theoretically displace it, though tight timelines make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$137,322Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 100% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LM Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at month-end, as Claude Opus 4.6 sits firmly at #3 with a 1497 Elo score—trailing only two superior Anthropic variants, Claude Opus 4.7-thinking (1503) and 4.6-thinking (1502). This dominance stems from Anthropic's April releases of Claude 4.6 and 4.7 models, which excelled in crowdsourced battles emphasizing substantive content over stylistic flair, outpacing rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #5 (1493). With the leaderboard updated just 22 hours ago and the market resolving imminently, a late-breaking model update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could theoretically displace it, though tight timelines make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes