Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o through superior performance in coding, math, and vision benchmarks, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner by June 30. This rapid ascent reflects intensifying competition among AI labs, with OpenAI's recent o1-preview model excelling in reasoning but trailing in overall Elo ratings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 series and xAI's Grok hold mid-pack positions. Market-implied odds hinge on the Arena's crowd-sourced evaluations, where small benchmark shifts can swing leadership; traders eye potential last-minute releases from OpenAI or Meta's Llama updates before resolution, amid broader AI capability races and safety scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$1,157,925 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
Alibaba
10%
DeepSeek
7%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
3%
$1,157,925 Vol.
OpenAI
$337,468 Vol.
29%
xAI
$537,574 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
10%
DeepSeek
$23,006 Vol.
7%
Meta
$0 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$1,906 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o through superior performance in coding, math, and vision benchmarks, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner by June 30. This rapid ascent reflects intensifying competition among AI labs, with OpenAI's recent o1-preview model excelling in reasoning but trailing in overall Elo ratings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 series and xAI's Grok hold mid-pack positions. Market-implied odds hinge on the Arena's crowd-sourced evaluations, where small benchmark shifts can swing leadership; traders eye potential last-minute releases from OpenAI or Meta's Llama updates before resolution, amid broader AI capability races and safety scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$1,157,925Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o through superior performance in coding, math, and vision benchmarks, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner by June 30. This rapid ascent reflects intensifying competition among AI labs, with OpenAI's recent o1-preview model excelling in reasoning but trailing in overall Elo ratings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 series and xAI's Grok hold mid-pack positions. Market-implied odds hinge on the Arena's crowd-sourced evaluations, where small benchmark shifts can swing leadership; traders eye potential last-minute releases from OpenAI or Meta's Llama updates before resolution, amid broader AI capability races and safety scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$1,157,925Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o through superior performance in coding, math, and vision benchmarks, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner by June 30. This rapid ascent reflects intensifying competition among AI labs, with OpenAI's recent o1-preview model excelling in reasoning but trailing in overall Elo ratings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 series and xAI's Grok hold mid-pack positions. Market-implied odds hinge on the Arena's crowd-sourced evaluations, where small benchmark shifts can swing leadership; traders eye potential last-minute releases from OpenAI or Meta's Llama updates before resolution, amid broader AI capability races and safety scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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