Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,449 Vol.
$598,449 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
74%
13%
OpenAI
6%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,449 Vol.
$598,449 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$142,402 Vol.
74%
$55,722 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$25,644 Vol.
6%
Meta
$13,337 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$63,987 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$103,522 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$18,348 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$39,369 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$27,597 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,737 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$33,041 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$8,032 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$13,009 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$12,137 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$598,449Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$598,449Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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