Trader sentiment on the third-best AI model by April's end hinges on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's tight mid-pack race, where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro holds a 62.5% implied probability lead thanks to its long-context prowess and consistent ELO scores around 1270. Alibaba's Qwen1.5-110B (42.5%) surged via multilingual benchmarks, while xAI's Grok-1.5 launch on April 12 propelled it to 41% amid vision-enhanced capabilities. Meituan's Doubao-pro (40.5%) impressed in Chinese evals, edging OpenAI (39.5%) and Mistral (37.5%), as traders bet OpenAI dominates #1 and Claude/Anthropic #2, leaving these for bronze. Snapshot volatility near April 30 keeps odds fluid.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGoogle 61%
xAI 35%
Alibaba 34%
Meituan 34%

61%

xAI
35%

Alibaba
34%

Meituan
34%

OpenAI
33%

Mistral
31%

Anthropic
30%

ByteDance
27%

Baidu
26%

DeepSeek
26%

Moonshot
26%

Amazon
26%

Z.ai
26%
Google 61%
xAI 35%
Alibaba 34%
Meituan 34%

61%

xAI
35%

Alibaba
34%

Meituan
34%

OpenAI
33%

Mistral
31%

Anthropic
30%

ByteDance
27%

Baidu
26%

DeepSeek
26%

Moonshot
26%

Amazon
26%

Z.ai
26%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the third-best AI model by April's end hinges on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's tight mid-pack race, where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro holds a 62.5% implied probability lead thanks to its long-context prowess and consistent ELO scores around 1270. Alibaba's Qwen1.5-110B (42.5%) surged via multilingual benchmarks, while xAI's Grok-1.5 launch on April 12 propelled it to 41% amid vision-enhanced capabilities. Meituan's Doubao-pro (40.5%) impressed in Chinese evals, edging OpenAI (39.5%) and Mistral (37.5%), as traders bet OpenAI dominates #1 and Claude/Anthropic #2, leaving these for bronze. Snapshot volatility near April 30 keeps odds fluid.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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