Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$232,012 Vol.
$232,012 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
Sí
No
Alibaba
No
ByteDance
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Meta
No
Microsoft
No
DeepSeek
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$232,012 Vol.
$232,012 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$45,677 Vol.
Sí
$20,189 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$8,238 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$9,064 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$9,521 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$8,623 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$32,766 Vol.
No
xAI
$10,315 Vol.
No
Baidu
$9,014 Vol.
No
Amazon
$8,592 Vol.
No
Mistral
$13,219 Vol.
No
Meituan
$10,663 Vol.
No
Meta
$10,382 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$6,981 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$28,768 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$232,012Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$232,012Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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