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icon for ¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?

¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?

icon for ¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?

¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?

$31,608 Vol.

30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$31,608 Vol.

Polymarket

1510

$12,123 Vol.

71%

1520

$3,829 Vol.

44%

1530

$5,525 Vol.

27%

1540

$2,031 Vol.

22%

1550

$8,099 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Frontier AI labs continue to push Chatbot Arena Elo scores higher through iterative releases of next-generation large language models, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking, OpenAI’s GPT-5.5-high, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro now clustered around 1505–1551 overall. These gains stem from expanded context windows, improved reasoning chains, and targeted fine-tuning rather than breakthroughs in scale alone, narrowing the gap between closed and open models. Traders watch for any surprise announcement or developer preview that could add 50–100 Elo points before the September 30 resolution, especially ahead of major conferences like Google I/O or OpenAI’s expected summer updates. Competitive pressure from xAI’s Grok 4 series and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek keeps the pace brisk, though historical patterns show that major score jumps often arrive in coordinated waves rather than isolated leaps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$31,608
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Frontier AI labs continue to push Chatbot Arena Elo scores higher through iterative releases of next-generation large language models, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking, OpenAI’s GPT-5.5-high, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro now clustered around 1505–1551 overall. These gains stem from expanded context windows, improved reasoning chains, and targeted fine-tuning rather than breakthroughs in scale alone, narrowing the gap between closed and open models. Traders watch for any surprise announcement or developer preview that could add 50–100 Elo points before the September 30 resolution, especially ahead of major conferences like Google I/O or OpenAI’s expected summer updates. Competitive pressure from xAI’s Grok 4 series and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek keeps the pace brisk, though historical patterns show that major score jumps often arrive in coordinated waves rather than isolated leaps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$31,608
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1510" con 71%, seguido de "1520" con 45%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 71¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 71% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?" ha generado $31.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 2, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?" es "1510" con 71%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 71% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1520" con 45%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de septiembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.