Recent elevated error rates and partial outages on Anthropic's Claude platform— including Claude Code disruptions on May 9, Opus 4.7 issues on May 8, and connection failures on May 7—have already logged downtime on at least six of the first 11 days in May, fueling trader consensus around 9-12 total days via closely matched implied probabilities of 38.5% for 12+ and 37.5% for 9-11. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive push in the AI arms race, rapidly iterating large language models like Claude 4.x amid surging demand and infrastructure strain to challenge OpenAI's dominance, yet struggling with API stability and scaling. Traders eye upcoming model updates or capacity expansions as potential catalysts to curb frequency, though historical patterns suggest persistent uptime challenges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado12+ 39%
9-11 38%
6-8 25.4%
3-5 8.7%
$26,957 Vol.
$26,957 Vol.
31 may 2026
0-2
1%
3-5
11%
6-8
28%
9-11
38%
12+
39%
12+ 39%
9-11 38%
6-8 25.4%
3-5 8.7%
$26,957 Vol.
$26,957 Vol.
31 may 2026
0-2
$18,559 Vol.
1%
3-5
$3,016 Vol.
11%
6-8
$1,046 Vol.
28%
9-11
$654 Vol.
38%
12+
$3,682 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates and partial outages on Anthropic's Claude platform— including Claude Code disruptions on May 9, Opus 4.7 issues on May 8, and connection failures on May 7—have already logged downtime on at least six of the first 11 days in May, fueling trader consensus around 9-12 total days via closely matched implied probabilities of 38.5% for 12+ and 37.5% for 9-11. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive push in the AI arms race, rapidly iterating large language models like Claude 4.x amid surging demand and infrastructure strain to challenge OpenAI's dominance, yet struggling with API stability and scaling. Traders eye upcoming model updates or capacity expansions as potential catalysts to curb frequency, though historical patterns suggest persistent uptime challenges.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$26,957Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates and partial outages on Anthropic's Claude platform— including Claude Code disruptions on May 9, Opus 4.7 issues on May 8, and connection failures on May 7—have already logged downtime on at least six of the first 11 days in May, fueling trader consensus around 9-12 total days via closely matched implied probabilities of 38.5% for 12+ and 37.5% for 9-11. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive push in the AI arms race, rapidly iterating large language models like Claude 4.x amid surging demand and infrastructure strain to challenge OpenAI's dominance, yet struggling with API stability and scaling. Traders eye upcoming model updates or capacity expansions as potential catalysts to curb frequency, though historical patterns suggest persistent uptime challenges.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$26,957Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated error rates and partial outages on Anthropic's Claude platform— including Claude Code disruptions on May 9, Opus 4.7 issues on May 8, and connection failures on May 7—have already logged downtime on at least six of the first 11 days in May, fueling trader consensus around 9-12 total days via closely matched implied probabilities of 38.5% for 12+ and 37.5% for 9-11. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive push in the AI arms race, rapidly iterating large language models like Claude 4.x amid surging demand and infrastructure strain to challenge OpenAI's dominance, yet struggling with API stability and scaling. Traders eye upcoming model updates or capacity expansions as potential catalysts to curb frequency, though historical patterns suggest persistent uptime challenges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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