Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 50% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance in recent LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, including top rankings in coding and agentic tasks like image-to-web development following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holds narrow leads in overall Elo scores as of mid-April, justifying its 20.5% odds, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags slightly at 16.2% amid competitive positioning. DeepSeek's open-weight advances secure 7.8%, but U.S. closed-source labs lead the pack. With model release timelines fluid, traders eye pre-June announcements from these frontrunners as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 50%
Google 21%
OpenAI 16.8%
DeepSeek 7.8%
$352,948 Vol.
$352,948 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
50%
21%
OpenAI
17%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
5%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 21%
OpenAI 16.8%
DeepSeek 7.8%
$352,948 Vol.
$352,948 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$7,452 Vol.
50%
$3,335 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$32,003 Vol.
17%
DeepSeek
$246,401 Vol.
8%
xAI
$12,198 Vol.
5%
Meta
$1,038 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$3,887 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$6,076 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$857 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$32,294 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$536 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$1,159 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,164 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,690 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$859 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 50% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance in recent LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, including top rankings in coding and agentic tasks like image-to-web development following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holds narrow leads in overall Elo scores as of mid-April, justifying its 20.5% odds, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags slightly at 16.2% amid competitive positioning. DeepSeek's open-weight advances secure 7.8%, but U.S. closed-source labs lead the pack. With model release timelines fluid, traders eye pre-June announcements from these frontrunners as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$352,948Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 50% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance in recent LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, including top rankings in coding and agentic tasks like image-to-web development following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holds narrow leads in overall Elo scores as of mid-April, justifying its 20.5% odds, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags slightly at 16.2% amid competitive positioning. DeepSeek's open-weight advances secure 7.8%, but U.S. closed-source labs lead the pack. With model release timelines fluid, traders eye pre-June announcements from these frontrunners as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$352,948Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 50% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance in recent LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, including top rankings in coding and agentic tasks like image-to-web development following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holds narrow leads in overall Elo scores as of mid-April, justifying its 20.5% odds, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags slightly at 16.2% amid competitive positioning. DeepSeek's open-weight advances secure 7.8%, but U.S. closed-source labs lead the pack. With model release timelines fluid, traders eye pre-June announcements from these frontrunners as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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