Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, fueling the market's 97.2% implied probability as traders bet on it holding through month's end. The large language model's (LLM) standout benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and vision tasks outpaced Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus amid stable leaderboards. No major rival releases—like xAI's Grok or DeepSeek's latest—have emerged to challenge it in late March. Realistic upset scenarios include surprise updates from OpenAI or Google causing leaderboard volatility, or benchmark methodology tweaks, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits such risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 97.2%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,498 Vol.
$525,498 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.2%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,498 Vol.
$525,498 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,547 Vol.
97%
xAI
$53,049 Vol.
1%
$121,209 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$151,961 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,606 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, fueling the market's 97.2% implied probability as traders bet on it holding through month's end. The large language model's (LLM) standout benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and vision tasks outpaced Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus amid stable leaderboards. No major rival releases—like xAI's Grok or DeepSeek's latest—have emerged to challenge it in late March. Realistic upset scenarios include surprise updates from OpenAI or Google causing leaderboard volatility, or benchmark methodology tweaks, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits such risks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$525,498Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, fueling the market's 97.2% implied probability as traders bet on it holding through month's end. The large language model's (LLM) standout benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and vision tasks outpaced Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus amid stable leaderboards. No major rival releases—like xAI's Grok or DeepSeek's latest—have emerged to challenge it in late March. Realistic upset scenarios include surprise updates from OpenAI or Google causing leaderboard volatility, or benchmark methodology tweaks, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits such risks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$525,498Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, fueling the market's 97.2% implied probability as traders bet on it holding through month's end. The large language model's (LLM) standout benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and vision tasks outpaced Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus amid stable leaderboards. No major rival releases—like xAI's Grok or DeepSeek's latest—have emerged to challenge it in late March. Realistic upset scenarios include surprise updates from OpenAI or Google causing leaderboard volatility, or benchmark methodology tweaks, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits such risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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