Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$82,045 Vol.
$82,045 Vol.
30 abr 2026
xAI
No
No
OpenAI
No
ByteDance
No
Meituan
No
Anthropic
Sí
Alibaba
No
Amazon
No
Baidu
No
Moonshot
No
DeepSeek
No
Z.ai
No
Mistral
No
Meta
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$82,045 Vol.
$82,045 Vol.
30 abr 2026
xAI
$3,023 Vol.
No
$5,473 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$10,528 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$6,338 Vol.
No
Meituan
$3,483 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$31,534 Vol.
Sí
Alibaba
$3,198 Vol.
No
Amazon
$1,865 Vol.
No
Baidu
$2,040 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$1,943 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$4,417 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$2,245 Vol.
No
Mistral
$1,948 Vol.
No
Meta
$3,793 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$217 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Volumen
$82,045Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$82,045Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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