Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" leading at 45% implied probability amid current top scores hovering around 1504-1505 for frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking. Anthropic commands 33.5% as the favorite due to its recent dominance, including Claude Opus 4.7 surging to the top of Arena.ai's Code Arena on April 17 with 1549 Elo in coding—mere points shy of the threshold—and consistent overall leadership. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3.1 trail closely but lack breakthroughs, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 impress at #1 open but lag proprietaries. Key catalysts ahead include summer model releases from major labs amid intensifying compute races and benchmark saturation concerns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 45%
Anthropic 32%
OpenAI 9%
Google 9%
$34,229 Vol.
$34,229 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
45%
Anthropic
32%
OpenAI
9%
9%
DeepSeek
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 45%
Anthropic 32%
OpenAI 9%
Google 9%
$34,229 Vol.
$34,229 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
$5,836 Vol.
45%
Anthropic
$4,704 Vol.
32%
OpenAI
$5,244 Vol.
9%
$5,123 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$2,591 Vol.
3%
xAI
$4,088 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$2,245 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,179 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,219 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" leading at 45% implied probability amid current top scores hovering around 1504-1505 for frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking. Anthropic commands 33.5% as the favorite due to its recent dominance, including Claude Opus 4.7 surging to the top of Arena.ai's Code Arena on April 17 with 1549 Elo in coding—mere points shy of the threshold—and consistent overall leadership. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3.1 trail closely but lack breakthroughs, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 impress at #1 open but lag proprietaries. Key catalysts ahead include summer model releases from major labs amid intensifying compute races and benchmark saturation concerns.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$34,229Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" leading at 45% implied probability amid current top scores hovering around 1504-1505 for frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking. Anthropic commands 33.5% as the favorite due to its recent dominance, including Claude Opus 4.7 surging to the top of Arena.ai's Code Arena on April 17 with 1549 Elo in coding—mere points shy of the threshold—and consistent overall leadership. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3.1 trail closely but lack breakthroughs, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 impress at #1 open but lag proprietaries. Key catalysts ahead include summer model releases from major labs amid intensifying compute races and benchmark saturation concerns.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$34,229Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" leading at 45% implied probability amid current top scores hovering around 1504-1505 for frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking. Anthropic commands 33.5% as the favorite due to its recent dominance, including Claude Opus 4.7 surging to the top of Arena.ai's Code Arena on April 17 with 1549 Elo in coding—mere points shy of the threshold—and consistent overall leadership. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3.1 trail closely but lack breakthroughs, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 impress at #1 open but lag proprietaries. Key catalysts ahead include summer model releases from major labs amid intensifying compute races and benchmark saturation concerns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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