Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado350k–375k 61%
<350k 32%
375k–400k 7.0%
450k–475k <1%
$747,802 Vol.
$747,802 Vol.
<350k
32%
350k–375k
61%
375k–400k
7%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
350k–375k 61%
<350k 32%
375k–400k 7.0%
450k–475k <1%
$747,802 Vol.
$747,802 Vol.
<350k
32%
350k–375k
61%
375k–400k
7%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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