Trader consensus implies a 95.8% probability of no moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by fundamental geophysical constraints affirmed by USGS data: no known fault is long enough to release the energy required, which would demand a rupture exceeding Earth's circumference of ~40,000 km. The largest recorded quake remains Chile's Mw 9.5 in 1960, with none above Mw 9.1 since Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; recent activity, including Indonesia's Mw 7.4 on April 1, 2026, remains far below this threshold. Global seismic networks provide continuous monitoring via USGS catalogs for resolution. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented super-rupture on an undiscovered fault system, deemed physically implausible by current plate tectonics understanding, though new data could theoretically prompt minor revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$556,132 Vol.
$556,132 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$556,132 Vol.
$556,132 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies a 95.8% probability of no moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by fundamental geophysical constraints affirmed by USGS data: no known fault is long enough to release the energy required, which would demand a rupture exceeding Earth's circumference of ~40,000 km. The largest recorded quake remains Chile's Mw 9.5 in 1960, with none above Mw 9.1 since Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; recent activity, including Indonesia's Mw 7.4 on April 1, 2026, remains far below this threshold. Global seismic networks provide continuous monitoring via USGS catalogs for resolution. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented super-rupture on an undiscovered fault system, deemed physically implausible by current plate tectonics understanding, though new data could theoretically prompt minor revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$556,132Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies a 95.8% probability of no moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by fundamental geophysical constraints affirmed by USGS data: no known fault is long enough to release the energy required, which would demand a rupture exceeding Earth's circumference of ~40,000 km. The largest recorded quake remains Chile's Mw 9.5 in 1960, with none above Mw 9.1 since Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; recent activity, including Indonesia's Mw 7.4 on April 1, 2026, remains far below this threshold. Global seismic networks provide continuous monitoring via USGS catalogs for resolution. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented super-rupture on an undiscovered fault system, deemed physically implausible by current plate tectonics understanding, though new data could theoretically prompt minor revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$556,132Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 95.8% probability of no moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by fundamental geophysical constraints affirmed by USGS data: no known fault is long enough to release the energy required, which would demand a rupture exceeding Earth's circumference of ~40,000 km. The largest recorded quake remains Chile's Mw 9.5 in 1960, with none above Mw 9.1 since Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; recent activity, including Indonesia's Mw 7.4 on April 1, 2026, remains far below this threshold. Global seismic networks provide continuous monitoring via USGS catalogs for resolution. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented super-rupture on an undiscovered fault system, deemed physically implausible by current plate tectonics understanding, though new data could theoretically prompt minor revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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