Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, driving the 95.9% implied probability for "No" before 2027. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length and slip; a Mw 10 would require over 14,000 km of simultaneous rupture—longer than Earth's circumference—with energy exceeding crustal storage limits. The largest recorded was Mw 9.5 in Chile (1960), and no Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011, per USGS monitoring, with 2026's largest around Mw 7.4. Realistic shifts would need unprecedented discoveries like unknown global mega-faults, but current seismic networks show no precursors, maintaining high confidence through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$556,106 Vol.
$556,106 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$556,106 Vol.
$556,106 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, driving the 95.9% implied probability for "No" before 2027. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length and slip; a Mw 10 would require over 14,000 km of simultaneous rupture—longer than Earth's circumference—with energy exceeding crustal storage limits. The largest recorded was Mw 9.5 in Chile (1960), and no Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011, per USGS monitoring, with 2026's largest around Mw 7.4. Realistic shifts would need unprecedented discoveries like unknown global mega-faults, but current seismic networks show no precursors, maintaining high confidence through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$556,106Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, driving the 95.9% implied probability for "No" before 2027. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length and slip; a Mw 10 would require over 14,000 km of simultaneous rupture—longer than Earth's circumference—with energy exceeding crustal storage limits. The largest recorded was Mw 9.5 in Chile (1960), and no Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011, per USGS monitoring, with 2026's largest around Mw 7.4. Realistic shifts would need unprecedented discoveries like unknown global mega-faults, but current seismic networks show no precursors, maintaining high confidence through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$556,106Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, driving the 95.9% implied probability for "No" before 2027. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length and slip; a Mw 10 would require over 14,000 km of simultaneous rupture—longer than Earth's circumference—with energy exceeding crustal storage limits. The largest recorded was Mw 9.5 in Chile (1960), and no Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011, per USGS monitoring, with 2026's largest around Mw 7.4. Realistic shifts would need unprecedented discoveries like unknown global mega-faults, but current seismic networks show no precursors, maintaining high confidence through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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