Trader sentiment on the number of large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 clusters tightly around zero (37%) and one (34.5%), mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.6–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program over the past five decades. This Poisson-like distribution reflects steady plate tectonic drivers and magma recharge cycles, with no evidence of a super-eruption cluster or prolonged quiescence. Recent 2024 activity—including VEI 4 blasts at Ruang in Indonesia and Kanlaon in the Philippines—aligns with norms, but short-term seismic unrest at hotspots like Kilauea or Popocatépetl has not signaled elevated 2026 risks. USGS and international monitoring will flag precursors like ground deformation or gas emissions, potentially shifting odds as data emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 38%
1 36%
2 9.7%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Vol.
$638,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
36%
2
10%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
0 38%
1 36%
2 9.7%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Vol.
$638,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,221 Vol.
38%
1
$235,619 Vol.
36%
2
$17,860 Vol.
10%
3
$0 Vol.
4%
4
$11,613 Vol.
2%
5+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment on the number of large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 clusters tightly around zero (37%) and one (34.5%), mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.6–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program over the past five decades. This Poisson-like distribution reflects steady plate tectonic drivers and magma recharge cycles, with no evidence of a super-eruption cluster or prolonged quiescence. Recent 2024 activity—including VEI 4 blasts at Ruang in Indonesia and Kanlaon in the Philippines—aligns with norms, but short-term seismic unrest at hotspots like Kilauea or Popocatépetl has not signaled elevated 2026 risks. USGS and international monitoring will flag precursors like ground deformation or gas emissions, potentially shifting odds as data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$638,313Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment on the number of large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 clusters tightly around zero (37%) and one (34.5%), mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.6–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program over the past five decades. This Poisson-like distribution reflects steady plate tectonic drivers and magma recharge cycles, with no evidence of a super-eruption cluster or prolonged quiescence. Recent 2024 activity—including VEI 4 blasts at Ruang in Indonesia and Kanlaon in the Philippines—aligns with norms, but short-term seismic unrest at hotspots like Kilauea or Popocatépetl has not signaled elevated 2026 risks. USGS and international monitoring will flag precursors like ground deformation or gas emissions, potentially shifting odds as data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$638,313Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on the number of large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 clusters tightly around zero (37%) and one (34.5%), mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.6–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program over the past five decades. This Poisson-like distribution reflects steady plate tectonic drivers and magma recharge cycles, with no evidence of a super-eruption cluster or prolonged quiescence. Recent 2024 activity—including VEI 4 blasts at Ruang in Indonesia and Kanlaon in the Philippines—aligns with norms, but short-term seismic unrest at hotspots like Kilauea or Popocatépetl has not signaled elevated 2026 risks. USGS and international monitoring will flag precursors like ground deformation or gas emissions, potentially shifting odds as data emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes