Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (36.0%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4—in 2026, mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program since the 1960s. This Poisson-like distribution reflects baseline volcanic activity without recent surges; 2024 has featured unrest at sites like Iceland's Reykjanes and Indonesia's Ruang but no confirmed VEI≥4 blasts, while 2022–2023 saw just one major event (Hunga Tonga-Tonga, VEI 5+). No precursory seismic or magmatic signals indicate deviation for 2026, underscoring inherent unpredictability beyond short-term monitoring by USGS volcano observatories. Traders await annual GVP summaries for refined baselines, with higher counts (2+) requiring clustered Plinian-scale activity rare outside subduction zones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 37%
1 35%
2 9.4%
3 3.7%
$638,263 Vol.
$638,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
37%
1
35%
2
9%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
0 37%
1 35%
2 9.4%
3 3.7%
$638,263 Vol.
$638,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,171 Vol.
37%
1
$235,619 Vol.
35%
2
$17,860 Vol.
9%
3
$0 Vol.
4%
4
$11,613 Vol.
2%
5+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (36.0%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4—in 2026, mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program since the 1960s. This Poisson-like distribution reflects baseline volcanic activity without recent surges; 2024 has featured unrest at sites like Iceland's Reykjanes and Indonesia's Ruang but no confirmed VEI≥4 blasts, while 2022–2023 saw just one major event (Hunga Tonga-Tonga, VEI 5+). No precursory seismic or magmatic signals indicate deviation for 2026, underscoring inherent unpredictability beyond short-term monitoring by USGS volcano observatories. Traders await annual GVP summaries for refined baselines, with higher counts (2+) requiring clustered Plinian-scale activity rare outside subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$638,263Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (36.0%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4—in 2026, mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program since the 1960s. This Poisson-like distribution reflects baseline volcanic activity without recent surges; 2024 has featured unrest at sites like Iceland's Reykjanes and Indonesia's Ruang but no confirmed VEI≥4 blasts, while 2022–2023 saw just one major event (Hunga Tonga-Tonga, VEI 5+). No precursory seismic or magmatic signals indicate deviation for 2026, underscoring inherent unpredictability beyond short-term monitoring by USGS volcano observatories. Traders await annual GVP summaries for refined baselines, with higher counts (2+) requiring clustered Plinian-scale activity rare outside subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$638,263Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (36.0%) large volcano eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4—in 2026, mirroring the historical global average of roughly 0.7–1.0 such events per year tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program since the 1960s. This Poisson-like distribution reflects baseline volcanic activity without recent surges; 2024 has featured unrest at sites like Iceland's Reykjanes and Indonesia's Ruang but no confirmed VEI≥4 blasts, while 2022–2023 saw just one major event (Hunga Tonga-Tonga, VEI 5+). No precursory seismic or magmatic signals indicate deviation for 2026, underscoring inherent unpredictability beyond short-term monitoring by USGS volcano observatories. Traders await annual GVP summaries for refined baselines, with higher counts (2+) requiring clustered Plinian-scale activity rare outside subduction zones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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