Trader consensus implies an 88% probability of no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission and prompting a World Health Organization (WHO) pandemic declaration through Q1. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC reports regional outbreaks of known diseases—such as 1,671 U.S. measles cases amid vaccination gaps, a resolved Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia by January 26, and isolated Nipah and meningococcal incidents—but none meet pandemic thresholds like widespread global spread of a new agent. Recent emergence of COVID-19 variant BA.3.2 ("Cicada") in 25 U.S. states and 23 countries shows higher transmissibility yet milder severity, not qualifying as novel. Ongoing monitoring of H5N1 avian influenza and mpox underscores inherent uncertainties, with WHO's next epidemiological updates expected to refine risks.