Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing July 2024's record as the hottest on record—0.83°C above the 1991–2020 average per Copernicus Climate Change Service data—driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amid rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent developments include 2024's string of monthly records, with the year on track to be the warmest ever despite the transition from El Niño to developing La Niña conditions, which typically cool global temperatures but have failed to halt the upward trajectory in recent cycles. Climate models like CMIP6 project sustained high anomalies through 2026, with historical precedents showing consecutive record-breaking years; key uncertainties include volcanic aerosols or ENSO variability, while upcoming WMO seasonal forecasts and Copernicus monthly bulletins will refine trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$105,292 Vol.
$105,292 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
Sí
$105,292 Vol.
$105,292 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing July 2024's record as the hottest on record—0.83°C above the 1991–2020 average per Copernicus Climate Change Service data—driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amid rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent developments include 2024's string of monthly records, with the year on track to be the warmest ever despite the transition from El Niño to developing La Niña conditions, which typically cool global temperatures but have failed to halt the upward trajectory in recent cycles. Climate models like CMIP6 project sustained high anomalies through 2026, with historical precedents showing consecutive record-breaking years; key uncertainties include volcanic aerosols or ENSO variability, while upcoming WMO seasonal forecasts and Copernicus monthly bulletins will refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$105,292Fecha de finalización
Jan 10, 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing July 2024's record as the hottest on record—0.83°C above the 1991–2020 average per Copernicus Climate Change Service data—driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amid rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent developments include 2024's string of monthly records, with the year on track to be the warmest ever despite the transition from El Niño to developing La Niña conditions, which typically cool global temperatures but have failed to halt the upward trajectory in recent cycles. Climate models like CMIP6 project sustained high anomalies through 2026, with historical precedents showing consecutive record-breaking years; key uncertainties include volcanic aerosols or ENSO variability, while upcoming WMO seasonal forecasts and Copernicus monthly bulletins will refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$105,292Fecha de finalización
Jan 10, 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing July 2024's record as the hottest on record—0.83°C above the 1991–2020 average per Copernicus Climate Change Service data—driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amid rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent developments include 2024's string of monthly records, with the year on track to be the warmest ever despite the transition from El Niño to developing La Niña conditions, which typically cool global temperatures but have failed to halt the upward trajectory in recent cycles. Climate models like CMIP6 project sustained high anomalies through 2026, with historical precedents showing consecutive record-breaking years; key uncertainties include volcanic aerosols or ENSO variability, while upcoming WMO seasonal forecasts and Copernicus monthly bulletins will refine trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes