Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Seoul high of 17°C at 23% implied probability, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast pinning the March 28 maximum near 17°C amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a tight spread of 16-18°C, with 18°C or higher at 18.5% reflecting optimistic dry scenarios, while 16°C (15.5%) accounts for potential afternoon cloudiness suppressing peaks. Differentiating factors include recent warm anomalies above the late-March historical average of 13°C, but lingering frontal boundaries introduce volatility—traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clarity as diurnal heating battles stratiform clouds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 28?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 28?
17°C 23%
18°C or higher 19%
16°C 16%
12°C 15%
8°C or below
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
15%
13°C
6%
14°C
15%
15°C
15%
16°C
16%
17°C
23%
18°C or higher
19%
17°C 23%
18°C or higher 19%
16°C 16%
12°C 15%
8°C or below
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
15%
13°C
6%
14°C
15%
15°C
15%
16°C
16%
17°C
23%
18°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Seoul high of 17°C at 23% implied probability, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast pinning the March 28 maximum near 17°C amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a tight spread of 16-18°C, with 18°C or higher at 18.5% reflecting optimistic dry scenarios, while 16°C (15.5%) accounts for potential afternoon cloudiness suppressing peaks. Differentiating factors include recent warm anomalies above the late-March historical average of 13°C, but lingering frontal boundaries introduce volatility—traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clarity as diurnal heating battles stratiform clouds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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