Trader consensus on Chicago's March 27 high temperature clusters tightly around 40-43°F, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks near 41-42°F amid a weak mid-level ridge over the Midwest. Differentiating factors include subtle discrepancies in ensemble means—GFS operational runs leaning slightly warmer at 42°F with diurnal mixing enhancing afternoon highs, versus ECMWF's cooler 40-41°F bias from persistent low clouds and northerly winds off Lake Michigan. Historical March 27 normals hover at 45°F, but current +2°C temperature anomalies and low confidence in frontal timing cap extremes, with 21% odds on 42-43°F edging out rivals per NWS guidance. Upcoming 00Z model updates could shift sentiment further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
42-43°F 22%
40-41°F 19%
46-47°F 15%
38-39°F 14%
33°F or below
3%
34-35°F
4%
36-37°F
9%
38-39°F
14%
40-41°F
19%
42-43°F
22%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
4%
52°F or higher
2%
42-43°F 22%
40-41°F 19%
46-47°F 15%
38-39°F 14%
33°F or below
3%
34-35°F
4%
36-37°F
9%
38-39°F
14%
40-41°F
19%
42-43°F
22%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
4%
52°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Chicago's March 27 high temperature clusters tightly around 40-43°F, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks near 41-42°F amid a weak mid-level ridge over the Midwest. Differentiating factors include subtle discrepancies in ensemble means—GFS operational runs leaning slightly warmer at 42°F with diurnal mixing enhancing afternoon highs, versus ECMWF's cooler 40-41°F bias from persistent low clouds and northerly winds off Lake Michigan. Historical March 27 normals hover at 45°F, but current +2°C temperature anomalies and low confidence in frontal timing cap extremes, with 21% odds on 42-43°F edging out rivals per NWS guidance. Upcoming 00Z model updates could shift sentiment further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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