Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to over 1,250 US tornadoes in 2026, driven by an exceptionally active early season pace with over 550 confirmed events through early May per National Weather Service tallies aggregated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Major outbreaks—March 10–12 (106 tornadoes), April 23–28 (99 tornadoes), and May 6–7 (14 tornadoes)—have pushed year-to-date figures 40–50% above the historical average of about 1,197 annually, despite activity skewing toward Midwest and Dixie Alley rather than traditional Tornado Alley. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, with SPC convective outlooks signaling continued severe potential from persistent storm tracks; however, final counts typically trail preliminary reports, and shifting jet stream patterns could moderate totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 85%
1200–1249 5.6%
1150–1199 4.3%
1000–1049 1.9%
$71,097 Vol.
$71,097 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
2%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
6%
1250+
85%
1250+ 85%
1200–1249 5.6%
1150–1199 4.3%
1000–1049 1.9%
$71,097 Vol.
$71,097 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$22,324 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,226 Vol.
2%
1050–1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,402 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,069 Vol.
6%
1250+
$16,572 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to over 1,250 US tornadoes in 2026, driven by an exceptionally active early season pace with over 550 confirmed events through early May per National Weather Service tallies aggregated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Major outbreaks—March 10–12 (106 tornadoes), April 23–28 (99 tornadoes), and May 6–7 (14 tornadoes)—have pushed year-to-date figures 40–50% above the historical average of about 1,197 annually, despite activity skewing toward Midwest and Dixie Alley rather than traditional Tornado Alley. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, with SPC convective outlooks signaling continued severe potential from persistent storm tracks; however, final counts typically trail preliminary reports, and shifting jet stream patterns could moderate totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$71,097Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to over 1,250 US tornadoes in 2026, driven by an exceptionally active early season pace with over 550 confirmed events through early May per National Weather Service tallies aggregated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Major outbreaks—March 10–12 (106 tornadoes), April 23–28 (99 tornadoes), and May 6–7 (14 tornadoes)—have pushed year-to-date figures 40–50% above the historical average of about 1,197 annually, despite activity skewing toward Midwest and Dixie Alley rather than traditional Tornado Alley. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, with SPC convective outlooks signaling continued severe potential from persistent storm tracks; however, final counts typically trail preliminary reports, and shifting jet stream patterns could moderate totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$71,097Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to over 1,250 US tornadoes in 2026, driven by an exceptionally active early season pace with over 550 confirmed events through early May per National Weather Service tallies aggregated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Major outbreaks—March 10–12 (106 tornadoes), April 23–28 (99 tornadoes), and May 6–7 (14 tornadoes)—have pushed year-to-date figures 40–50% above the historical average of about 1,197 annually, despite activity skewing toward Midwest and Dixie Alley rather than traditional Tornado Alley. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, with SPC convective outlooks signaling continued severe potential from persistent storm tracks; however, final counts typically trail preliminary reports, and shifting jet stream patterns could moderate totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes