NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports zero catalogued NEOs on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton airburst energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.7 percent “No” consensus. Ground-based surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have logged only safe flybys, such as the May 18 passage of 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, while the first half of the year has produced no qualifying events. Statistically, objects yielding roughly 400–500 kilotons—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide—occur on multi-decadal timescales, and ongoing infrared searches further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor. Remaining uncertainty stems from the small fraction of sub-30-meter objects that could still evade detection until atmospheric entry.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports zero catalogued NEOs on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton airburst energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.7 percent “No” consensus. Ground-based surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have logged only safe flybys, such as the May 18 passage of 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, while the first half of the year has produced no qualifying events. Statistically, objects yielding roughly 400–500 kilotons—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide—occur on multi-decadal timescales, and ongoing infrared searches further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor. Remaining uncertainty stems from the small fraction of sub-30-meter objects that could still evade detection until atmospheric entry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$7,235Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports zero catalogued NEOs on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton airburst energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.7 percent “No” consensus. Ground-based surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have logged only safe flybys, such as the May 18 passage of 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, while the first half of the year has produced no qualifying events. Statistically, objects yielding roughly 400–500 kilotons—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide—occur on multi-decadal timescales, and ongoing infrared searches further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor. Remaining uncertainty stems from the small fraction of sub-30-meter objects that could still evade detection until atmospheric entry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$7,235Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports zero catalogued NEOs on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton airburst energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.7 percent “No” consensus. Ground-based surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have logged only safe flybys, such as the May 18 passage of 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, while the first half of the year has produced no qualifying events. Statistically, objects yielding roughly 400–500 kilotons—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide—occur on multi-decadal timescales, and ongoing infrared searches further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor. Remaining uncertainty stems from the small fraction of sub-30-meter objects that could still evade detection until atmospheric entry.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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