Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT or greater exploding in Earth's atmosphere throughout 2026, per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) data from U.S. Government sensors. No such event has been confirmed through the first quarter of 2026, despite a surge in smaller fireballs—including a bright bolide over Europe on March 8 and multiple U.S. sightings in late March with energies below 0.03 kt—which has doubled reports of large witness events (50+) relative to five-year averages. Historical CNEOS records indicate these 5-kt threshold events occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, creating genuine uncertainty amid sporadic meteoroid influx; ongoing sensor monitoring and April's Lyrid meteor shower could shift odds with new detections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT or greater exploding in Earth's atmosphere throughout 2026, per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) data from U.S. Government sensors. No such event has been confirmed through the first quarter of 2026, despite a surge in smaller fireballs—including a bright bolide over Europe on March 8 and multiple U.S. sightings in late March with energies below 0.03 kt—which has doubled reports of large witness events (50+) relative to five-year averages. Historical CNEOS records indicate these 5-kt threshold events occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, creating genuine uncertainty amid sporadic meteoroid influx; ongoing sensor monitoring and April's Lyrid meteor shower could shift odds with new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$276,925Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT or greater exploding in Earth's atmosphere throughout 2026, per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) data from U.S. Government sensors. No such event has been confirmed through the first quarter of 2026, despite a surge in smaller fireballs—including a bright bolide over Europe on March 8 and multiple U.S. sightings in late March with energies below 0.03 kt—which has doubled reports of large witness events (50+) relative to five-year averages. Historical CNEOS records indicate these 5-kt threshold events occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, creating genuine uncertainty amid sporadic meteoroid influx; ongoing sensor monitoring and April's Lyrid meteor shower could shift odds with new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$276,925Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT or greater exploding in Earth's atmosphere throughout 2026, per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) data from U.S. Government sensors. No such event has been confirmed through the first quarter of 2026, despite a surge in smaller fireballs—including a bright bolide over Europe on March 8 and multiple U.S. sightings in late March with energies below 0.03 kt—which has doubled reports of large witness events (50+) relative to five-year averages. Historical CNEOS records indicate these 5-kt threshold events occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, creating genuine uncertainty amid sporadic meteoroid influx; ongoing sensor monitoring and April's Lyrid meteor shower could shift odds with new detections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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