Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events, with only four occurrences since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018). Despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 Atlantic seasons producing multiple Category 5 storms like Beryl and Melissa, none struck the U.S. at peak intensity due to steering patterns and weakening over approach. Preseason 2026 outlooks from NOAA and AccuWeather project average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors), tempered by a likely transition to ENSO-neutral or emerging El Niño conditions that boost upper-level wind shear, hindering rapid intensification. Updated NOAA forecasts expected in April-May could refine probabilities amid inherent model uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events, with only four occurrences since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018). Despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 Atlantic seasons producing multiple Category 5 storms like Beryl and Melissa, none struck the U.S. at peak intensity due to steering patterns and weakening over approach. Preseason 2026 outlooks from NOAA and AccuWeather project average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors), tempered by a likely transition to ENSO-neutral or emerging El Niño conditions that boost upper-level wind shear, hindering rapid intensification. Updated NOAA forecasts expected in April-May could refine probabilities amid inherent model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$107,255Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events, with only four occurrences since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018). Despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 Atlantic seasons producing multiple Category 5 storms like Beryl and Melissa, none struck the U.S. at peak intensity due to steering patterns and weakening over approach. Preseason 2026 outlooks from NOAA and AccuWeather project average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors), tempered by a likely transition to ENSO-neutral or emerging El Niño conditions that boost upper-level wind shear, hindering rapid intensification. Updated NOAA forecasts expected in April-May could refine probabilities amid inherent model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$107,255Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events, with only four occurrences since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018). Despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 Atlantic seasons producing multiple Category 5 storms like Beryl and Melissa, none struck the U.S. at peak intensity due to steering patterns and weakening over approach. Preseason 2026 outlooks from NOAA and AccuWeather project average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors), tempered by a likely transition to ENSO-neutral or emerging El Niño conditions that boost upper-level wind shear, hindering rapid intensification. Updated NOAA forecasts expected in April-May could refine probabilities amid inherent model uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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