Traders price "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme thresholds—magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruptions—remain statistically rare according to USGS and Smithsonian Institution baselines, with such events occurring only a few times per millennium or once per century on average. No activity meeting these criteria has been recorded in the first five months of 2026, and global seismic and volcanic monitoring networks continue to register only background levels. Long-term tectonic and magmatic processes carry inherent forecast uncertainty, yet current observational data from official agencies show no signs of escalation that would alter the market-implied odds ahead of ongoing surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$219,862 Vol.
$219,862 Vol.
Sí
$219,862 Vol.
$219,862 Vol.
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme thresholds—magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruptions—remain statistically rare according to USGS and Smithsonian Institution baselines, with such events occurring only a few times per millennium or once per century on average. No activity meeting these criteria has been recorded in the first five months of 2026, and global seismic and volcanic monitoring networks continue to register only background levels. Long-term tectonic and magmatic processes carry inherent forecast uncertainty, yet current observational data from official agencies show no signs of escalation that would alter the market-implied odds ahead of ongoing surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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