**No at 92%** reflects the absence of any qualifying extreme events through mid-October 2026, according to official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall this season, no VEI 6+ volcanic eruption has occurred, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has been recorded, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes have been detected. These thresholds represent tail-end phenomena with low historical frequencies even in active years, and current data from neutral ENSO conditions and typical seismic/volcanic patterns support trader consensus favoring resolution to No. A late-season Category 5 landfall or unexpected major eruption or quake before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the odds before the December 31 close.