Trader consensus on “No” at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the low historical frequency of events meeting typical resolution thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption. USGS and Smithsonian Institution records show these occur only a handful of times per millennium and roughly once per century, respectively, with none recorded through the first five months of 2026. Ongoing global seismic networks and volcano observatories report only background activity levels, while long-term tectonic and magmatic forecasting models carry wide uncertainty ranges that have not shifted market-implied odds. Resolution occurs December 31, 2026, leaving room for rare tail events but supporting the current pricing absent new extreme observations.