USGS seismic catalogs confirm more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the >9 outcome as the monitoring period concluded. This tally aligns with the historical baseline of approximately 10 such events per week, drawn from decades of global data reflecting tectonic activity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key developments included a M5.7 quake near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14 and multiple mid-Pacific events, with steady detections via the Advanced National Seismic System. Realistic challenges would require unusual downward revisions in final moment magnitudes during USGS review—typically stable within 0.2 units—or exclusion of verified events, both low-probability scenarios given robust network coverage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 13 al 19 de abril?
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$210,418 Vol.
$210,418 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Sí
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$210,418 Vol.
$210,418 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Sí
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
USGS seismic catalogs confirm more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the >9 outcome as the monitoring period concluded. This tally aligns with the historical baseline of approximately 10 such events per week, drawn from decades of global data reflecting tectonic activity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Key developments included a M5.7 quake near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14 and multiple mid-Pacific events, with steady detections via the Advanced National Seismic System. Realistic challenges would require unusual downward revisions in final moment magnitudes during USGS review—typically stable within 0.2 units—or exclusion of verified events, both low-probability scenarios given robust network coverage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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