Trader consensus leans toward a high of 50-51°F in Seattle on March 23 (37.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing 51°F amid persistent low-level clouds and cool marine air inflow from the Pacific. Closely trailing at 32% for 52-53°F, this reflects ensemble model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where slight ridging aloft could erode cloud cover for minor warm-up, but onshore flow caps diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include boundary layer moisture trapping heat below 52°F historically on similar setups, with Sea-Tac Airport observations resolving the market; a 12z model refresh may tip the balance as uncertainty hovers within 2-3°F per verified analogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Seattle el 23 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Seattle el 23 de marzo?
50-51°F 39%
52-53°F 32%
48-49°F 20%
54-55°F 10%
41°F o menos
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
3%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
1%
60°F o más
<1%
50-51°F 39%
52-53°F 32%
48-49°F 20%
54-55°F 10%
41°F o menos
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
3%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
1%
60°F o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus leans toward a high of 50-51°F in Seattle on March 23 (37.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing 51°F amid persistent low-level clouds and cool marine air inflow from the Pacific. Closely trailing at 32% for 52-53°F, this reflects ensemble model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where slight ridging aloft could erode cloud cover for minor warm-up, but onshore flow caps diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include boundary layer moisture trapping heat below 52°F historically on similar setups, with Sea-Tac Airport observations resolving the market; a 12z model refresh may tip the balance as uncertainty hovers within 2-3°F per verified analogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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