Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28 clusters tightly around 74–81°F due to converging short-range forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, projecting highs of 76–80°F amid weak onshore flow and partial marine layer dissipation. The 25% edge for 76–77°F reflects ensemble means near 78°F, tempered by historical March 28 averages of 71°F and persistent coastal stratus delaying peak heating until afternoon. Slightly higher odds for 80–81°F (23%) stem from recent runs indicating stronger subsidence aloft, potentially eroding low clouds for 2–3°F extra warming, while 74–75°F (22%) accounts for model spread if Santa Ana-like ridging fails to materialize. Uncertainty hinges on morning visibility reports from LAX, with upper-80s bids (19.5%) betting on outlier clear skies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
78-79°F 21%
72-73°F 19%
67°F or below
16%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
10%
86°F or higher
14%
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
78-79°F 21%
72-73°F 19%
67°F or below
16%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
10%
86°F or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28 clusters tightly around 74–81°F due to converging short-range forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, projecting highs of 76–80°F amid weak onshore flow and partial marine layer dissipation. The 25% edge for 76–77°F reflects ensemble means near 78°F, tempered by historical March 28 averages of 71°F and persistent coastal stratus delaying peak heating until afternoon. Slightly higher odds for 80–81°F (23%) stem from recent runs indicating stronger subsidence aloft, potentially eroding low clouds for 2–3°F extra warming, while 74–75°F (22%) accounts for model spread if Santa Ana-like ridging fails to materialize. Uncertainty hinges on morning visibility reports from LAX, with upper-80s bids (19.5%) betting on outlier clear skies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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