Trader consensus favors Democrats at 68% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Lean Republican rating for incumbent Rob Wittman's re-election bid. This reflects strong Democratic recruiting, highlighted by Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor's momentum—including a New Dems endorsement four days ago, backing from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, and nearly $400,000 raised in Q4 2025—amid a crowded primary field of 11 contenders ahead of the June filing deadline. A September 2025 House Majority PAC poll showed Taylor competitive in a hypothetical matchup, bolstered by Spanberger's 2.5-point district win signaling shifting voter sentiment in this battleground. Midterm dynamics against the GOP presidential party further elevate perceived Democratic pickup potential despite Wittman's long incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$12,915 交易量
$12,915 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
67%
共和党
29%
$12,915 交易量
$12,915 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$12,618 交易量
67%
共和党
$297 交易量
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors Democrats at 68% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Lean Republican rating for incumbent Rob Wittman's re-election bid. This reflects strong Democratic recruiting, highlighted by Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor's momentum—including a New Dems endorsement four days ago, backing from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, and nearly $400,000 raised in Q4 2025—amid a crowded primary field of 11 contenders ahead of the June filing deadline. A September 2025 House Majority PAC poll showed Taylor competitive in a hypothetical matchup, bolstered by Spanberger's 2.5-point district win signaling shifting voter sentiment in this battleground. Midterm dynamics against the GOP presidential party further elevate perceived Democratic pickup potential despite Wittman's long incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$12,915结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors Democrats at 68% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Lean Republican rating for incumbent Rob Wittman's re-election bid. This reflects strong Democratic recruiting, highlighted by Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor's momentum—including a New Dems endorsement four days ago, backing from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, and nearly $400,000 raised in Q4 2025—amid a crowded primary field of 11 contenders ahead of the June filing deadline. A September 2025 House Majority PAC poll showed Taylor competitive in a hypothetical matchup, bolstered by Spanberger's 2.5-point district win signaling shifting voter sentiment in this battleground. Midterm dynamics against the GOP presidential party further elevate perceived Democratic pickup potential despite Wittman's long incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,915结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Democrats at 68% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Lean Republican rating for incumbent Rob Wittman's re-election bid. This reflects strong Democratic recruiting, highlighted by Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor's momentum—including a New Dems endorsement four days ago, backing from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, and nearly $400,000 raised in Q4 2025—amid a crowded primary field of 11 contenders ahead of the June filing deadline. A September 2025 House Majority PAC poll showed Taylor competitive in a hypothetical matchup, bolstered by Spanberger's 2.5-point district win signaling shifting voter sentiment in this battleground. Midterm dynamics against the GOP presidential party further elevate perceived Democratic pickup potential despite Wittman's long incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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