Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+19 partisan voting index, incumbent Brendan Boyle's repeated landslide victories—including 71% in 2024—and his $4.8 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Primaries on May 19 feature Boyle against perennial challenger Salem Snow on the Democratic side, with Republican Jessica Arriaga as the lone GOP filer post-March 10 filing deadline; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic with no polling shifts. No notable developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Realistic challenges include a major Boyle scandal, legal issues, health event, or robust Republican recruitment yielding a well-funded contender amid a national GOP midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$12,641 交易量
$12,641 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$12,641 交易量
$12,641 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$1,924 交易量
95%
共和党
$10,717 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+19 partisan voting index, incumbent Brendan Boyle's repeated landslide victories—including 71% in 2024—and his $4.8 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Primaries on May 19 feature Boyle against perennial challenger Salem Snow on the Democratic side, with Republican Jessica Arriaga as the lone GOP filer post-March 10 filing deadline; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic with no polling shifts. No notable developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Realistic challenges include a major Boyle scandal, legal issues, health event, or robust Republican recruitment yielding a well-funded contender amid a national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$12,641结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+19 partisan voting index, incumbent Brendan Boyle's repeated landslide victories—including 71% in 2024—and his $4.8 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Primaries on May 19 feature Boyle against perennial challenger Salem Snow on the Democratic side, with Republican Jessica Arriaga as the lone GOP filer post-March 10 filing deadline; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic with no polling shifts. No notable developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Realistic challenges include a major Boyle scandal, legal issues, health event, or robust Republican recruitment yielding a well-funded contender amid a national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,641结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+19 partisan voting index, incumbent Brendan Boyle's repeated landslide victories—including 71% in 2024—and his $4.8 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025. Primaries on May 19 feature Boyle against perennial challenger Salem Snow on the Democratic side, with Republican Jessica Arriaga as the lone GOP filer post-March 10 filing deadline; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic with no polling shifts. No notable developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Realistic challenges include a major Boyle scandal, legal issues, health event, or robust Republican recruitment yielding a well-funded contender amid a national GOP midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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