The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District, following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement announcement, remains a Solid Democratic hold per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, driven by its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 50% since 2012. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting a crowded top-two primary field favoring Democrats—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin with endorsements from Brownley, Sens. Alex Padilla, and labor unions like SEIU—over Republicans like fundraiser Sam Gallucci and 2024 nominee Michael Koslow. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a weak Democratic advancer pairing or GOP surge amid national midterm dynamics, scandals, or turnout swings, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$17,935 交易量
$17,935 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,935 交易量
$17,935 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$9,042 交易量
94%
共和党
$8,893 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District, following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement announcement, remains a Solid Democratic hold per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, driven by its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 50% since 2012. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting a crowded top-two primary field favoring Democrats—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin with endorsements from Brownley, Sens. Alex Padilla, and labor unions like SEIU—over Republicans like fundraiser Sam Gallucci and 2024 nominee Michael Koslow. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a weak Democratic advancer pairing or GOP surge amid national midterm dynamics, scandals, or turnout swings, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$17,935结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District, following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement announcement, remains a Solid Democratic hold per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, driven by its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 50% since 2012. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting a crowded top-two primary field favoring Democrats—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin with endorsements from Brownley, Sens. Alex Padilla, and labor unions like SEIU—over Republicans like fundraiser Sam Gallucci and 2024 nominee Michael Koslow. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a weak Democratic advancer pairing or GOP surge amid national midterm dynamics, scandals, or turnout swings, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,935结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District, following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement announcement, remains a Solid Democratic hold per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, driven by its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 50% since 2012. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting a crowded top-two primary field favoring Democrats—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin with endorsements from Brownley, Sens. Alex Padilla, and labor unions like SEIU—over Republicans like fundraiser Sam Gallucci and 2024 nominee Michael Koslow. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a weak Democratic advancer pairing or GOP surge amid national midterm dynamics, scandals, or turnout swings, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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