Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's strong incumbency advantage and sky-high approval ratings drive trader consensus toward a 77.5% implied probability for a Republican victory in Vermont's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election. A February 2026 Morning Consult poll confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering expectations after his 2024 landslide win that broke Democratic supermajorities in the legislature. Democrats fielded their first primary challenger, economist Amanda Janoo, on March 10, but lack prominent contenders amid party struggles to recruit. With primaries set for August 11, Scott's cross-party appeal in the deep-blue state—despite two-year terms—positions Republicans as heavy favorites per Cook Political Report's Solid R rating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
78%
Democrat
18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$2,415 Vol.
78%
Democrat
$5,193 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's strong incumbency advantage and sky-high approval ratings drive trader consensus toward a 77.5% implied probability for a Republican victory in Vermont's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election. A February 2026 Morning Consult poll confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering expectations after his 2024 landslide win that broke Democratic supermajorities in the legislature. Democrats fielded their first primary challenger, economist Amanda Janoo, on March 10, but lack prominent contenders amid party struggles to recruit. With primaries set for August 11, Scott's cross-party appeal in the deep-blue state—despite two-year terms—positions Republicans as heavy favorites per Cook Political Report's Solid R rating.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's strong incumbency advantage and sky-high approval ratings drive trader consensus toward a 77.5% implied probability for a Republican victory in Vermont's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election. A February 2026 Morning Consult poll confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering expectations after his 2024 landslide win that broke Democratic supermajorities in the legislature. Democrats fielded their first primary challenger, economist Amanda Janoo, on March 10, but lack prominent contenders amid party struggles to recruit. With primaries set for August 11, Scott's cross-party appeal in the deep-blue state—despite two-year terms—positions Republicans as heavy favorites per Cook Political Report's Solid R rating.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's strong incumbency advantage and sky-high approval ratings drive trader consensus toward a 77.5% implied probability for a Republican victory in Vermont's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election. A February 2026 Morning Consult poll confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering expectations after his 2024 landslide win that broke Democratic supermajorities in the legislature. Democrats fielded their first primary challenger, economist Amanda Janoo, on March 10, but lack prominent contenders amid party struggles to recruit. With primaries set for August 11, Scott's cross-party appeal in the deep-blue state—despite two-year terms—positions Republicans as heavy favorites per Cook Political Report's Solid R rating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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