In the open-seat race to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills, trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 90%, reflecting forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, alongside the party's trifecta control and consecutive gubernatorial wins in 2018 and 2022. Recent March polls underscore a competitive seven-candidate Democratic primary, with Nirav Shah surging to 31% in the latest Impact Research survey (Mar. 19–23), ahead of Troy Jackson (18%) and Shenna Bellows (17%), while Bobby Charles leads Republicans at 26% in Pan Atlantic polling. Absent general election matchups, odds hinge on ranked-choice primaries June 9; major shifts would require Republican consolidation or Democratic stumbles amid Maine's left-leaning electoral math for the office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
90%
Republican
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$0 Vol.
90%
Republican
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In the open-seat race to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills, trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 90%, reflecting forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, alongside the party's trifecta control and consecutive gubernatorial wins in 2018 and 2022. Recent March polls underscore a competitive seven-candidate Democratic primary, with Nirav Shah surging to 31% in the latest Impact Research survey (Mar. 19–23), ahead of Troy Jackson (18%) and Shenna Bellows (17%), while Bobby Charles leads Republicans at 26% in Pan Atlantic polling. Absent general election matchups, odds hinge on ranked-choice primaries June 9; major shifts would require Republican consolidation or Democratic stumbles amid Maine's left-leaning electoral math for the office.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In the open-seat race to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills, trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 90%, reflecting forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, alongside the party's trifecta control and consecutive gubernatorial wins in 2018 and 2022. Recent March polls underscore a competitive seven-candidate Democratic primary, with Nirav Shah surging to 31% in the latest Impact Research survey (Mar. 19–23), ahead of Troy Jackson (18%) and Shenna Bellows (17%), while Bobby Charles leads Republicans at 26% in Pan Atlantic polling. Absent general election matchups, odds hinge on ranked-choice primaries June 9; major shifts would require Republican consolidation or Democratic stumbles amid Maine's left-leaning electoral math for the office.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the open-seat race to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills, trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 90%, reflecting forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, alongside the party's trifecta control and consecutive gubernatorial wins in 2018 and 2022. Recent March polls underscore a competitive seven-candidate Democratic primary, with Nirav Shah surging to 31% in the latest Impact Research survey (Mar. 19–23), ahead of Troy Jackson (18%) and Shenna Bellows (17%), while Bobby Charles leads Republicans at 26% in Pan Atlantic polling. Absent general election matchups, odds hinge on ranked-choice primaries June 9; major shifts would require Republican consolidation or Democratic stumbles amid Maine's left-leaning electoral math for the office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions