How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$97,386 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

4.4%

$59,818 Vol.

13%

4.5%

$0 Vol.

4.6%

$18,409 Vol.

4.8%

$0 Vol.

5.0%

$0 Vol.

$97,386 Vol.

4.4%

$59,818 Vol.

13%

4.5%

$0 Vol.

4.6%

$18,409 Vol.

4.8%

$0 Vol.

5.0%

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 10-year Treasury yield peaking between 4.5% and 4.75% by March 31, reflecting a 35% implied probability for that bin amid post-election fiscal stimulus expectations. Recent surges to 4.62%—the highest since May—stem from resilient U.S. economic data, including November's 2.7% CPI and strong jobs prints, tempering aggressive Fed cut bets. Incoming catalysts include January 15 CPI, January 29 FOMC signaling two more 25bp cuts in 2025, and March 12 CPI ahead of the March 19 policy meeting. Rising term premiums and deficit concerns from potential tax cuts could push yields higher, though recession risks cap upside; traders wager real capital on these dynamics amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 18, 2026, 8:11 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" has generated $97.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $97.4K traded on “How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "4.3%" in the "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "4.3%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" market has a growing discussion of 7 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

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Market Context

Comments (7)

Top Holders

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