Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

John James 36%

Perry Johnson 35%

Aric Nesbitt 10.1%

Tom Leonard 2.4%

Polymarket

$15,613 Vol.

John James 36%

Perry Johnson 35%

Aric Nesbitt 10.1%

Tom Leonard 2.4%

Polymarket

$15,613 Vol.

John James

$5,129 Vol.

36%

Perry Johnson

$7,233 Vol.

40%

Aric Nesbitt

$0 Vol.

13%

Tom Leonard

$1,077 Vol.

2%

Mike Cox

$2,174 Vol.

2%

Anthony Hudson

$0 Vol.

2%

Karla Wagner

$0 Vol.

2%

Joyce Gipson

$0 Vol.

1%

William Null

$0 Vol.

1%

Evan Space

$0 Vol.

1%

Ralph Rebandt

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In Michigan's open Republican gubernatorial primary, trader consensus gives self-funding entrepreneur Perry Johnson a slim 44% implied probability edge over U.S. Rep. John James at 38%, reflecting recent third-quarter fundraising reports where Johnson pledged millions in personal contributions, bolstering his 2022 campaign infrastructure despite past signature challenges. James holds close with strong name recognition from two statewide Senate runs and growing party backing, while Aric Nesbitt trails at 13% on legislative experience. The tight contest persists amid minimal early polls, a fragmented field of nine viable candidates, and no dominant endorsements yet; catalysts like Trump-aligned support, first polls, or debate clashes could widen gaps before the August 2026 primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,613
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In Michigan's open Republican gubernatorial primary, trader consensus gives self-funding entrepreneur Perry Johnson a slim 44% implied probability edge over U.S. Rep. John James at 38%, reflecting recent third-quarter fundraising reports where Johnson pledged millions in personal contributions, bolstering his 2022 campaign infrastructure despite past signature challenges. James holds close with strong name recognition from two statewide Senate runs and growing party backing, while Aric Nesbitt trails at 13% on legislative experience. The tight contest persists amid minimal early polls, a fragmented field of nine viable candidates, and no dominant endorsements yet; catalysts like Trump-aligned support, first polls, or debate clashes could widen gaps before the August 2026 primary.

In Michigan's open Republican gubernatorial primary, trader consensus gives self-funding entrepreneur Perry Johnson a slim 44% implied probability edge over U.S. Rep. John James at 38%, reflecting recent third-quarter fundraising reports where Johnson pledged millions in personal contributions, bolstering his 2022 campaign infrastructure despite past signature challenges. James holds close with strong name recognition from two statewide Senate runs and growing party backing, while Aric Nesbitt trails at 13% on legislative experience. The tight contest persists amid minimal early polls, a fragmented field of nine viable candidates, and no dominant endorsements yet; catalysts like Trump-aligned support, first polls, or debate clashes could widen gaps before the August 2026 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Perry Johnson" at 40%, followed by "John James" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $15.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Perry Johnson" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John James" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.