Market icon

Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Market icon

Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Dan 6–12% 100.0%

Simion >18% <1%

Simion 12–18% <1%

Simion 6–12% <1%

Polymarket

$34,330,747 Vol.

Dan 6–12% 100.0%

Simion >18% <1%

Simion 12–18% <1%

Simion 6–12% <1%

Polymarket

$34,330,747 Vol.

Market icon

Simion >18%

$3,108,866 Vol.

No

Market icon

Simion 12–18%

$2,286,247 Vol.

No

Market icon

Simion 6–12%

$2,095,503 Vol.

No

Market icon

Simion 0–6%

$3,328,727 Vol.

No

Market icon

Dan 0–6%

$6,483,478 Vol.

No

Market icon

Dan 6–12%

$6,494,332 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Dan >12%

$7,891,267 Vol.

No

Market icon

Other

$2,642,327 Vol.

No

The runoff for the Romanian presidential election is scheduled for May 18, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Romanian Presidential Election runoff.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Romanian Presidential Election runoff.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once it has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, or if the runoff is permanently canceled, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).
Volume
$34,330,747
End Date
May 18, 2025
Market Opened
May 4, 2025, 9:32 PM ET
The runoff for the Romanian presidential election is scheduled for May 18, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Romanian Presidential Election runoff. For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Romanian Presidential Election runoff. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once it has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, or if the runoff is permanently canceled, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan 6–12%" at 100%, followed by "Simion >18%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory" has generated $34.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory" is "Dan 6–12%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Simion >18%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Romanian Presidential Election Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.