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Tech·AI

Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?

$Market icon$

Tech·AI

Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Mar 31

OpenAI 92%

Anthropic 2.4%

DeepSeek 2.3%

xAI 1.8%

$318,387 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

OpenAI

$25,769 Vol.

92%

Anthropic

$47,686 Vol.

DeepSeek

$35,324 Vol.

xAI

$27,968 Vol.

Google

$108,480 Vol.

Z.ai

$15,682 Vol.

<1%

Alibaba

$17,748 Vol.

<1%

Moonshot

$14,029 Vol.

<1%

Mistral

$25,702 Vol.

<1%

OpenAI 92%

Anthropic 2.4%

DeepSeek 2.3%

xAI 1.8%

$318,387 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

OpenAI

$25,769 Vol.

92%

Anthropic

$47,686 Vol.

DeepSeek

$35,324 Vol.

xAI

$27,968 Vol.

Google

$108,480 Vol.

Z.ai

$15,682 Vol.

<1%

Alibaba

$17,748 Vol.

<1%

Moonshot

$14,029 Vol.

<1%

Mistral

$25,702 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

OpenAI's o1 reasoning models dominate trader sentiment with a 91.5% implied probability of having the best AI model for math by March 31, driven by their record-breaking scores on key benchmarks like the MATH dataset (94.8%) and AIME 2024 (83.3%), far surpassing rivals via advanced chain-of-thought techniques. No confirmed challenger has matched these verified leaderboard results, per Hugging Face and LMSYS arenas, amid a lull in major releases. Scenarios that could shift odds include surprise launches like xAI's Grok-3 (slated for early 2025) or Anthropic's Claude 4 preview exceeding o1's thresholds before deadline, though historical delays temper such bets.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 18, 2026, 4:39 AM UTC

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

90%

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

27%

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?

55%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 92%, followed by "Anthropic" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" has generated $318.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" is "OpenAI" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anthropic" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $318.4K traded on “Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 92¢ for "OpenAI" in the "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 92% chance that "OpenAI" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 92¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 8¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?" market has an active community of 62 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?

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Comments (62)

Top Holders

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