Market icon
Tech·Apple

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Market icon
Tech·Apple

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

NEW

$12,379 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$12,379 Vol.

Polymarket

March 20

$11,835 Vol.

76%

March 31

$543 Vol.

92%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$12,379
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

ChatGPT, dubbed the "Big AI" in trader parlance, maintains a commanding lead as the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store after over 250 consecutive days, fueling low odds (around 20%) for it losing the spot by year-end. Its staying power stems from OpenAI's recent app updates integrating advanced o1 reasoning models and image generation, outpacing rivals like Google's Gemini and Anthropic's newly launched Claude iOS app. However, seasonal threats loom from holiday gaming surges (e.g., Whiteout Survival) and Apple Intelligence's native Siri enhancements in iOS 18.2, set for wider rollout soon, which could fragment AI demand and shift trader consensus toward displacement.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 31" at 92%, followed by "March 20" at 76%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" is "March 31" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 20" at 76%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.