Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman and consistent supply-chain signals have kept trader sentiment tilted toward a 2026 launch for Apple’s first touchscreen MacBook Pro or new “MacBook Ultra” model, now expected with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, an OLED panel, Dynamic Island, and a refreshed industrial design. These updates accelerated development to meet a late-2026 to early-2027 window, with macOS 27 testing already underway and OLED production cleared. The 65.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 release reflects the narrow remaining calendar window and Apple’s history of timeline slippage, balanced against multiple credible sources confirming the product remains on track absent major production delays. Key near-term catalysts include any October hardware event or fresh supply-chain data.