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6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか?

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6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか?

はい

9% chance
Polymarket

$21,643 Vol.

はい

9% chance
Polymarket

$21,643 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).

Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.

A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.

If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.

A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$21,643
終了日
Jun 30, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).

Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.

A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.

If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.

A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$21,643
終了日
Jun 30, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか? " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月30日までにチリで戒厳令が宣言されたか?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか? " has generated $21.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか? ," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか? " is "6月30日までにチリで戒厳令が宣言されたか?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "6月30日までにチリで包囲状態が宣言されましたか? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.