Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for a state of siege declaration in Chile by June 30, reflecting the absence of severe internal disturbance required under the constitution for this extreme measure, which suspends key civil rights and demands congressional extension beyond 15 days. President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, has prioritized security through targeted actions—including border wall construction, military reinforcements via Decree Supremo 78, and decrees ramping up anti-crime efforts—without escalating to estado de sitio. The ongoing milder constitutional state of emergency in the southern macrozone was extended March 24 and toughened April 1 with potential transit limits, but no nationwide crisis or major protests have emerged to justify fuller restrictions, underscoring controlled handling of violence and migration pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$38,204 Vol.
$38,204 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$38,204 Vol.
$38,204 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for a state of siege declaration in Chile by June 30, reflecting the absence of severe internal disturbance required under the constitution for this extreme measure, which suspends key civil rights and demands congressional extension beyond 15 days. President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, has prioritized security through targeted actions—including border wall construction, military reinforcements via Decree Supremo 78, and decrees ramping up anti-crime efforts—without escalating to estado de sitio. The ongoing milder constitutional state of emergency in the southern macrozone was extended March 24 and toughened April 1 with potential transit limits, but no nationwide crisis or major protests have emerged to justify fuller restrictions, underscoring controlled handling of violence and migration pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$38,204終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for a state of siege declaration in Chile by June 30, reflecting the absence of severe internal disturbance required under the constitution for this extreme measure, which suspends key civil rights and demands congressional extension beyond 15 days. President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, has prioritized security through targeted actions—including border wall construction, military reinforcements via Decree Supremo 78, and decrees ramping up anti-crime efforts—without escalating to estado de sitio. The ongoing milder constitutional state of emergency in the southern macrozone was extended March 24 and toughened April 1 with potential transit limits, but no nationwide crisis or major protests have emerged to justify fuller restrictions, underscoring controlled handling of violence and migration pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$38,204終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for a state of siege declaration in Chile by June 30, reflecting the absence of severe internal disturbance required under the constitution for this extreme measure, which suspends key civil rights and demands congressional extension beyond 15 days. President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, has prioritized security through targeted actions—including border wall construction, military reinforcements via Decree Supremo 78, and decrees ramping up anti-crime efforts—without escalating to estado de sitio. The ongoing milder constitutional state of emergency in the southern macrozone was extended March 24 and toughened April 1 with potential transit limits, but no nationwide crisis or major protests have emerged to justify fuller restrictions, underscoring controlled handling of violence and migration pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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