Following Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the July 5 runoff and inauguration as president on July 30, 2024—after the snap election triggered by Ebrahim Raisi's May helicopter crash—Iranian traders price in a 92.5% chance of no further presidential election by June 30, 2025, reflecting the standard four-year term under Article 115 of the constitution and absence of triggers like death, resignation, or impeachment. Recent cabinet nominations have advanced through Majlis confirmation votes despite Guardian Council holds on some reformist picks, signaling political continuity rather than crisis. Ongoing escalations with Israel, including missile exchanges last month, have not prompted domestic upheaval or Supreme Leader intervention to dissolve the administration. Only extraordinary events like health issues or no-confidence motions could shift this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$183,245 Vol.
$183,245 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$183,245 Vol.
$183,245 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the July 5 runoff and inauguration as president on July 30, 2024—after the snap election triggered by Ebrahim Raisi's May helicopter crash—Iranian traders price in a 92.5% chance of no further presidential election by June 30, 2025, reflecting the standard four-year term under Article 115 of the constitution and absence of triggers like death, resignation, or impeachment. Recent cabinet nominations have advanced through Majlis confirmation votes despite Guardian Council holds on some reformist picks, signaling political continuity rather than crisis. Ongoing escalations with Israel, including missile exchanges last month, have not prompted domestic upheaval or Supreme Leader intervention to dissolve the administration. Only extraordinary events like health issues or no-confidence motions could shift this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
音量
$183,245終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the July 5 runoff and inauguration as president on July 30, 2024—after the snap election triggered by Ebrahim Raisi's May helicopter crash—Iranian traders price in a 92.5% chance of no further presidential election by June 30, 2025, reflecting the standard four-year term under Article 115 of the constitution and absence of triggers like death, resignation, or impeachment. Recent cabinet nominations have advanced through Majlis confirmation votes despite Guardian Council holds on some reformist picks, signaling political continuity rather than crisis. Ongoing escalations with Israel, including missile exchanges last month, have not prompted domestic upheaval or Supreme Leader intervention to dissolve the administration. Only extraordinary events like health issues or no-confidence motions could shift this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$183,245終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the July 5 runoff and inauguration as president on July 30, 2024—after the snap election triggered by Ebrahim Raisi's May helicopter crash—Iranian traders price in a 92.5% chance of no further presidential election by June 30, 2025, reflecting the standard four-year term under Article 115 of the constitution and absence of triggers like death, resignation, or impeachment. Recent cabinet nominations have advanced through Majlis confirmation votes despite Guardian Council holds on some reformist picks, signaling political continuity rather than crisis. Ongoing escalations with Israel, including missile exchanges last month, have not prompted domestic upheaval or Supreme Leader intervention to dissolve the administration. Only extraordinary events like health issues or no-confidence motions could shift this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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