Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent diplomatic freeze, comprehensive sanctions, and escalating regional tensions. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—highlighted US backing through intelligence sharing and defensive aid, with no de-escalation signals from either side. Stalled nuclear negotiations under the Biden administration, Iran's continued support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, and IRGC terrorism designations reinforce barriers to normalization. Absent major policy shifts post-2024 election, historical precedents since the 1979 embassy closure suggest formidable diplomatic and security hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent diplomatic freeze, comprehensive sanctions, and escalating regional tensions. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—highlighted US backing through intelligence sharing and defensive aid, with no de-escalation signals from either side. Stalled nuclear negotiations under the Biden administration, Iran's continued support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, and IRGC terrorism designations reinforce barriers to normalization. Absent major policy shifts post-2024 election, historical precedents since the 1979 embassy closure suggest formidable diplomatic and security hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
音量
$29,601終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent diplomatic freeze, comprehensive sanctions, and escalating regional tensions. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—highlighted US backing through intelligence sharing and defensive aid, with no de-escalation signals from either side. Stalled nuclear negotiations under the Biden administration, Iran's continued support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, and IRGC terrorism designations reinforce barriers to normalization. Absent major policy shifts post-2024 election, historical precedents since the 1979 embassy closure suggest formidable diplomatic and security hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$29,601終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent diplomatic freeze, comprehensive sanctions, and escalating regional tensions. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—highlighted US backing through intelligence sharing and defensive aid, with no de-escalation signals from either side. Stalled nuclear negotiations under the Biden administration, Iran's continued support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, and IRGC terrorism designations reinforce barriers to normalization. Absent major policy shifts post-2024 election, historical precedents since the 1979 embassy closure suggest formidable diplomatic and security hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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