Traders assign near-certain probability to “Nothing” in the March market because none of the resolution triggers materialized by the end of the month. The Iranian regime did not fall despite the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March and subsequent U.S.-Israel strikes; a successor was named without broader collapse. No Federal Reserve rate cut occurred, the Insurrection Act was not invoked, no election-interference national emergency was declared, the SAVE Act was not signed, and the specified Texas Senate primary candidates did not advance to confirmed status. Ongoing regional conflict and domestic political activity remained below the defined thresholds. The market stays open pending definitive Texas primary results, yet traders view any last-minute shift in these narrow conditions as highly improbable.